See How Our Pitcher Ratings Have Changed Since Opening Day


One of the cool features in our MLB predictions model at FiveThirtyEight is its ability to adjust a team’s odds of winning any given game based on the strength of its starting pitcher. We do this by maintaining a constantly updating rating of every starter in baseball, which refreshes after every start based on our version of game score — a metric that grades pitching performances using stats such as strikeouts, walks, home runs and so forth.15
And who do our ratings say are the best starters in baseball? Here’s how the Top 20 looked on opening day and how it’s changed since:

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Sunday November 04, 2018

And she’ll also be DELIVERING your meals herself! The post Attention Adelaide: Leah Itsines Has Just Launched A Meal Kit Delivery Service appeared first on Sporteluxe.

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Which pitchers have risen and fallen since opening day?
Top 20 MLB starting pitchers in 2019, before the season and as of April 30, based on FiveThirtyEight’s Elo pitcher ratings

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Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. There are two types: Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either,2 and […]

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Preseason

See How Our Pitcher Ratings Have Changed Since Opening Day
Tuesday April 30, 2019

One of the cool features in our MLB predictions model at FiveThirtyEight is its ability to adjust a team’s odds of winning any given game based on the strength of its starting pitcher. We do this by maintaining a constantly updating rating of every starter in baseball, which refreshes after every start based on our […]

The post See How Our Pitcher Ratings Have Changed Since Opening Day appeared first on W88ap.

Current

Pitcher
Team
Rating

Pitcher
Team
Rating
rk Chg

1
Jacob deGrom
NYM
65.1

Justin Verlander
HOU
62.5
4▲

2
Chris Sale
BOS
63.4

Jacob deGrom
NYM
61.8
1▼

3
Max Scherzer
WAS
62.7

Trevor Bauer
CLE
61.3
4▲

4
Blake Snell
TB
61.7

Blake Snell
TB
61.2

5
Justin Verlander
HOU
61.0

Max Scherzer
WAS
61.0
2▼

6
Aaron Nola
PHI
60.6

German Marquez
COL
59.9
6▲

7
Trevor Bauer
CLE
59.9

Mike Clevinger
CLE
59.6
7▲

8
Walker Buehler
LAD
59.0

Chris Sale
BOS
59.1
6▼

9
Carlos Carrasco
CLE
58.9

Gerrit Cole
HOU
57.9
1▲

10
Gerrit Cole
HOU
58.8

Luis Castillo
CIN
57.4
22▲

11
Kyle Freeland
COL
58.7

David Price
BOS
57.3
7▲

12
German Marquez
COL
58.6

Patrick Corbin
WAS
57.2
3▲

13
Corey Kluber
CLE
58.0

Kyle Freeland
COL
57.1
2▼

14
Mike Clevinger
CLE
57.6

Walker Buehler
LAD
57.1
6▼

15
Patrick Corbin
WAS
57.2

Mike Minor
TEX
57.0
20▲

16
S. Strasburg
WAS
56.7

S. Strasburg
WAS
56.9

17
Noah Syndergaard
NYM
56.6

Carlos Carrasco
CLE
56.9
8▼

18
David Price
BOS
56.4

Aaron Nola
PHI
56.8
12▼

19
Zack Greinke
ARI
56.2

Clayton Kershaw
LAD
56.4
7▲

20
Kyle Hendricks
CHC
56.0

James Paxton
NYY
56.3
7▲

A number of the top aces at the beginning of the season have started the season on the wrong foot. The New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom, Boston’s Chris Sale, Cleveland’s Corey Kluber and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola have all seen the biggest drop-offs from the original Top 20. Because the ratings roll over from last season, that group hasn’t dropped too far, but they have lost some of their status since the season began. But a handful of others have either pitched their way up the list with good starts (Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, German Marquez, Mike Clevinger) or onto it from the outside since the beginning of the year (Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo, Texas’s Mike Minor).
These changes matter for our overall season predictions. Game score ratings aren’t just fun — they can have quite an effect on a team’s chance of winning: The Tampa Bay Rays’ chance of beating an average team (on a neutral field) with ace Blake Snell, for instance, is 61 percent; with a league-average starter, that number drops to 53 percent. To help you follow the state of each rotation, we recently added a new feature to our predictions interactive tracking these ratings for every team’s pitching staff (sorted by division). Now we can visualize just how much better Verlander and his fellow Astros are than the rest of the AL West…

… as well as the sad state of the Orioles’ rotation (whose only above-average starter is journeyman Nate Karns):

You can also see how a rotation’s starters stack up against its division foes on our team pages. Here, for example, are the Cleveland Indians, who might have the best rotation in baseball right now:

As always, these ratings update after every game to help you stay on top of the latest predictions and World Series odds.
Check out our latest MLB predictions.